I’ve been reading some pretty interesting, yet kind of scary, futures scenarios lately. There’s been a sharp uptick in stories recently depicting various scenarios of economic collapse/decline. A few:
These are not exactly the “Long Boom” we were promised by Peter Schwartz and his compadres back at the turn of the century.
I think it’s too early to say which way things will break, but I think both views need to be considered in futures planning. I can definitely see how our current arrangements depend on complex infrastructures — energy, monetary policy — that are appearing increasingly fragile. Our high comsumin’ high debt ways will come to an end eventually, but will the techno-optimists’ silver bullet of reforms and technology hit before the crisis hits us between the eyes? Am I willing to bank on it?
Either way, I still maintain that the optimum strategy, boom or bust, is to simplify our lifestyles, build community and support networks, deepen our spiritual lives, develop interests and hobbies that do not depend on complex infrastructures, support local culture.